The message from the Canadian Immigration “gods” is clear…
“Get with it or get left behind...”
And just last week (July 18th), Canada’s Immigration Minister, Marc Miller, delivered a crucial message to international students:
"You Can't All Stay."
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I took a step back the last several weeks to observe how immigration has evolved and the most recent changes that have snowballed into 2024, creating a new immigration landscape.
I’ve often considered immigration to be a selfish pursuit—though not in a negative sense.
The aspiring immigrant pursues Canada for personal gain; they seek a better life, superior opportunities, or a brighter future for their children. Rarely is the thought, “Oh, Canada needs me to help fill their labor gaps, let me go help Canada.”
Conversely, Canada opens its borders not out of mere generosity but from necessity. The country faces an aging population, imminent mass retirements, and significant labor shortages across various sectors. Thus, Canada's immigration policies are strategically designed to replenish and rejuvenate its workforce. A quote from the Canadian Encyclopedia, “Since Confederation, immigration policy has been tailored to grow the population, settle the land, and provide labour and financial capital for the economy.”
Sometimes both the country and the aspiring immigrant forget that they may each have different objectives. As a result, the government struggles with immigration retention, while some immigrants face challenges in acquiring permanent residency.
But most importantly, it is the aspiring immigrant who needs to be paying keen attention to the government's goals, since they hold the power, and the people pursuing Canada are a dime a dozen, especially the ones Canada actually needs. They don’t need or want everyone… just all the right ones.
Some Alarming Stats
The Toronto Star published an article on Saturday, April 20, 2024, with some alarming statistics. The article, entitled “Bribes, fake jobs, and the 'desperate' situation facing Canada's temporary residents,” stated that:
“...the temporary resident population has skyrocketed from 1.4 million two years ago to today's 2.5 million, with 42% of them here on study permits, 53% on work permits.”
“Veress estimates that some 600,000 of the temporary residents are in limbo, facing a loss of legal status.”
“Of the current 211,962 candidates with a profile in the talent pool, only 13,144, or six percent of people have a score over 500.” (side note, this could mean points will drop, halt, or focus mainly on Canadian Experience Class or category based Express Entry draws, who knows!)
If you are familiar with Express Entry or are currently in the Express Entry pool OR trying to get in, you know what this means.
If you are in Canada as an international student or work permit holder, you need to pay attention to these numbers.
If you plan to study in or move to Canada in 2024 and beyond you need to do it properly so your efforts are not an uphill battle, or worse, in vain.
The Progression of Express Entry
When Express Entry was introduced in 2015 the criteria were “those who were most likely to succeed.” If you had enough education, work experience, the right age and bonus, Canadian education and/or work experience, you would be considered “most likely to succeed” and given an invitation to become a Permanent Resident (PR) in Canada.
When the first rounds of invitations were announced, they started off very ambitious with scores in the 800s, then quickly got realistic dropping scores to the 400s. That year saw scores as low as 450, which was the score when I was invited to apply for PR.
The Express Entry streams were clear, and once you had enough points, as a federal skilled worker, Canadian experience class, or federal trades worker, you would receive an invitation to apply.
Over time, the process became predictable, until the government quickly realized gaps in the labour market that immigration was intended to solve still existed. They don’t need all the ‘most likely to succeeders,’ they need the ones that align with labour shortages and in-demand occupations in Canada.
Fast forward to 2023-2024, and the scores are in the mid to high 500s, and not only that, immigration has sharpened their policies to ensure that the immigration targets and invitations align directly with Canada’s labour needs.
To do this, they have created category-based Express Entry draws to specifically select people in in-demand occupations and industries within the Canadian labour market. Within Express Entry, there are now categories for French speakers, healthcare occupations, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math), trade occupations, transport occupations, and agriculture and agri-food occupations.
So where does this leave you? You who are not part of an in-demand occupation…
The Moving Target
My Express Entry score was ~490 when I was invited to apply in 2015. In today’s immigration environment, I would be in hot water wondering what to do since I am not in an in-demand occupation.
I had a one-year Post Graduation Work Permit, and I received an invitation to apply for permanent residency 2 months before the expiry date. I submitted a bridge open work permit application to extend my work permit, 6 days before expiry. If it were 2023, or 2024, my fate could have been very, very different.
Imagine the family who left Canada last month after 5 years in Canada. They followed the path. Studied for 2 years, received a 3-year post-graduation work permit with an expiry date of May 2024, and did not have enough points under the Express Entry system.
When they moved to Canada 5 years ago, things were looking up. The path was predictable and I am certain they never saw this coming.
The Takeaway?
If you are in this situation, or if you are just starting your Canadian Immigration journey in 2024, you need to be strategic about your next moves to secure your place in Canada.
What Now?
It is no secret where the government is focusing their efforts. The Express Entry categories, regional immigration programs, provincial programs, and 2024-2026 immigration levels are a dead giveaway for where current labor shortages exist and their efforts in building francophone communities outside of Quebec.
I have put together a masterclass to help you understand what your options are, as well as plan ahead if your journey has only just begun.
In this masterclass video series, you will learn how to position yourself well given the current Canadian immigration changes, and how to strategically increase your chances of securing permanent residency.
Click the link to sign up for the masterclass today. → https://www.astoldbycanadianimmigrants.com/masterclass
Listen to this article on Apple Podcast, Spotify or watch on YouTube Podcast.
Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a licensed immigration consultant. This masterclass is based on my personal experience and research, and it is intended to provide general information and guidance. For personalized immigration advice, please consult a licensed professional. I can help connect you with a licensed professional if needed!
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